Kentucky's Early Vote Opens Two-Thirds Above 2022 Pace as Democrats Take First-Day Lead

Kentucky’s three-day window for no-excuse early voting closes today, Saturday, Oct. 31, and the first day alone pulled far more voters than the same day in the last midterm. Secretary of State Michael Adams, a Republican, reported on X that 135,901 Kentuckians cast ballots on Thursday, Oct. 29. On the opening day of early voting in 2022, the count was 81,961. That works out to roughly two-thirds more voters this time.

Who showed up first

Registered Democrats made up the biggest group on Thursday. Adams’ figures, as reported by Spectrum News 1, put the party split at 66,166 Democrats, 60,793 Republicans and 8,942 independents. In 2022, Republicans narrowly led the first day, 39,349 to 37,640, with 4,972 independents.

Counting absentee ballots and excused in-person votes along with Thursday’s early ballots, Adams said about 95,600 Democrats had voted by 6 p.m., or roughly 7% of the party’s registered voters. About 83,726 Republicans had voted, near 5% of Republican registration, along with 12,579 independents, also about 7%.

The Kentucky Lantern reported that more than 13,000 voters had used excused in-person voting by Thursday and that close to 43,000 mail absentee ballots were back, about 66% of those issued.

The big counties

The state’s two largest counties ran well ahead of their 2022 pace. Jefferson County had 32,549 early and absentee voters by Thursday evening, compared with 20,606 at the same point four years ago, Spectrum reported. Fayette County, which sits inside the 6th Congressional District, had 12,620, up from 8,861. The Lantern, citing the State Board of Elections, said nearly 7,300 of Fayette’s votes were cast on Thursday itself.

Outside the cities, the picture was steadier. Madison County’s clerk said 4,700 people voted Thursday and projected that just under half of registered voters will have cast ballots by election night, WKYT reported. “In the primary we had 36%, the general has more people to vote, so we are probably looking at 40% turnout for the 47,000 registered voters in Laurel County,” Laurel County Clerk Tony Brown told the station.

Adams told the Lantern the opening day ran smoothly. “I think this is the first day of voting since I’ve been in office where I haven’t had my phone going off all day,” he said. He added that heavy early turnout raises a question for lawmakers: “Is it that we need more locations for early voting, or is it that we need more days for early voting, or is it both?”

Analysis: what the numbers do and don’t say

This section is context from the Kacee Allen Network News Desk, based on the figures above.

A Democratic edge on day one is a real data point, but it is not a forecast. Adams’ own percentages imply that Republicans hold the larger share of Kentucky’s voter rolls, so a smaller slice of Republican voters can still mean a larger raw vote. Most Kentuckians have not voted yet, and every ballot cast Tuesday counts the same as one cast Thursday.

The bigger story is engagement. Turnout up about two-thirds over 2022, with the sharpest gains in Louisville and Lexington, signals that both parties’ voters are paying attention, especially around the 6th District, where the Lantern described the House race as the state’s most competitive. For Northern Kentucky readers, the practical takeaway is simple: if you have not voted, today is the last early day, and the polls open again on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3.

Editor’s note: This report was written by the Kacee Allen Network News Desk. Statewide and party turnout figures are Secretary of State Michael Adams’ numbers as reported by Spectrum News 1 and the Kentucky Lantern; the two outlets’ totals matched, and the 2022 comparison was recalculated by the desk from the published counts. Absentee figures and Adams’ quotes come from the Lantern, and the Madison and Laurel County figures and quote come from WKYT. No original interviews were conducted for this story; the analysis section is the Network’s own context.