Forecaster Moves Kentucky's 6th District to Toss-Up as Johnson Asks Trump for More House Money

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted 19 more U.S. House races in Democrats’ direction on Friday, including Kentucky’s open 6th Congressional District, as Speaker Mike Johnson pressed President Donald Trump for additional campaign cash to protect the Republican majority ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

What the forecaster changed

Cook said it based the new ratings on fresh polling and on where both parties are spending advertising money. Six districts moved from Toss Up to Lean Democrat, and four of those are currently held by Republicans. Two open seats that had leaned Republican were moved to Toss Up.

“Republicans’ path to keeping control of the House has all but evaporated,” Cook House analyst Erin Covey wrote in the analysis.

After the changes, Cook rates 220 seats as Solid, Likely or Lean Democrat, two more than the 218 needed for a majority. It rates 198 seats as favoring Republicans and lists 17 contests as pure Toss Ups. The forecaster said its likeliest outcome is a Democratic gain of 12 to 22 seats. Democrats currently hold 215 seats.

According to a report published by Yahoo News, the four Republican incumbents whose races moved to Lean Democrat are Reps. Juan Ciscomani of Arizona, Gabe Evans of Colorado, Jen Kiggans of Virginia and Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin.

Kentucky’s 6th District

One of the two open seats moved to Toss Up is Kentucky’s 6th District, which includes Lexington. The same report said Republican Ralph Alvarado faces Democrat Zach Dembo in that race. The other is the open seat in Texas’ 35th District, a contest between Democrat Johnny Garcia and Republican Carlos De La Cruz.

CNN reported that a Trump-aligned super PAC has directed additional money into open seats including Kentucky’s 6th and Texas’ 23rd, both of which Trump carried by roughly 15 points in 2024.

Johnson’s request to Trump

CNN, citing a person familiar with the exchange, reported Thursday that Johnson asked Trump whether he could provide more money for House Republicans in the closing stretch. Punchbowl News first reported the request. CNN said donors and lawmakers have also been asking people close to the president for more help in key races.

Within days of Johnson’s request, Trump’s political operation put close to $30 million into dozens of House contests, according to CNN.

CNBC, reviewing Federal Election Commission reports, said MAGA Inc., Trump’s primary super PAC, had spent $300.5 million as of Oct. 14, with $75.5 million of that going out during October’s first two weeks. The group reported $164.3 million left in the bank. According to CNBC, much of that money has been routed through two newer groups: No Going Back PAC, which received $200 million, and Safety & Affordability PAC, which received $25 million.

Johnson’s team says he still expects to keep control of the chamber. “The fact is, as evidenced by crisscrossing the country on behalf of candidates and raising over a half billion dollars, the Speaker fervently believes Republicans can and will hold the House majority,” a senior member of his team told CNN.

Where the money is moving

CNN reported that Republican groups have pulled back from several districts they had hoped to flip and are instead defending incumbents in seats Trump won easily, including districts in Arizona, Ohio, Florida and Wisconsin. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the main super PAC aligned with House Republican leaders, cut most of its remaining ad time in Texas’ 28th District, according to the report.

“This is just a ‘batten down the hatches’ situation,” one Republican operative involved in House races told CNN.

Cook’s ratings are forecasts, not results. Early voting is underway in many states, and Election Day is Nov. 3.